At the beginning of 2015, the British government had £2.59 billion in undated securities outstanding, representing about 0.23% of the British government’s gilt portfolio. These bonds had no set redemption date, but could be redeemed with three months’ notice. In theory, the gilts could have existed forever.
These securities had originally been issued between 1853 and 1946 and replaced securities that originated back in the 1700s. Unfortunately, they are no more. The last undated gilt, also referred to as a perpetuity because it had no redemption date, was called in by the British government on July 5, 2015. Three hundred years of financial history has come to an end.
One thing that was nice about the undated gilts was that you could easily calculate their yield (assuming the loans weren’t called in three months) by dividing the yield by the price of the bond. So the 2.5% Consolidated Loan yielded 5% when the loan was at 50 (2.5%/50) or 3.33% when the loan was at 75 (2.5%/75). The chart below shows the yield on the Consolidated Loan from 1729 until 2015. Inverting the chart provides the price of security. Enjoy this record of financial markets over the past 285 years because we will be unable to update it anymore.
Perpetuities Begin
To understand why perpetuities existed, you have to go back to the beginning of Britain’s financial history. Originally, loans were made direct to the sovereign, rather than to the government. This put the lender at risk because the king could default on a loan, and the lender had little recourse to collect his money. After the glorious revolution in 1688, loans were made to the government, not the king. The government tried various ways of raising money, such as issuing lotteries, or issuing annuities, which were paid for the life of the annuitant. Naturally, lenders tried to game the debt by having children buy annuities in order to maximize the flow of interest payments until the purchaser died. Eighty-year old men did not buy annuities. Rather than trying to keep track of every annuitant and selling annuities to children, the British government introduced perpetuities which paid interest forever. To further simplify things, the British government consolidated all the outstanding annuities and other bonds into a single security paying 3% interest. The 3% annuity had been issued in July 1729 and was converted into the 3% Consolidated Loan in July 1753. The 3% Consolidated Loan was refunded into a 2.75% Loan on April 5, 1888 and was converted into a 2.5% Loan in April 1902. The Consolidated Loan provided an unbroken source for data on British bond yields from 1729 to 2015. Until World War I, almost all of the government’s outstanding debt was in the form of undated gilts. In 1910, of the £762 million in outstanding government debt, £567 million was in 2.5% Consolidated Debt. By the time the 2.5% Consolidated Loan was redeemed in 2015, only £162.1 million was outstanding. The idea of issuing bonds to be redeemed one, five, ten or thirty years from maturity and refunding these issues when they matured was the exception. The British government mainly issued debt when there was a war and redeemed debt during peacetime. The government had yet to figure out how to run a deficit every single year, even in peacetime. Britain was not alone in issuing perpetuities. Most European governments had perpetuities outstanding which represented a large portion of their debt prior to World War I.The Impact of World War I
During World War I, the British government had to issue large amounts of debt to fund the war. Because interest rates rose as a result of war-time inflation, lenders were unwilling to provide funds at 2.5% anymore. The British government was forced to issue large amounts of debt at higher interest rates. Nevertheless, during the 1920s and 1930s, after inflation had subsided and interest rates returned to pre-war levels, the British government once again consolidated its outstanding war loans into perpetuities. The government issued the 3.5% Conversion Loan on April 1, 1921 in exchange for the 5% National War Bonds. This issue could not be redeemed before April 1, 1961. The 4% Consolidated Loan was issued on January 19, 1927 in exchange for various War Bonds and Treasury Bonds paying between 4% and 5% interest and could not be redeemed before 1957. The largest of the War Loan issues was the 3.5% War Loan issued on December 1, 1932 in exchange for the 5% War Loan due between 1929 and 1947 and could not be redeemed before 1952. This loan represented £1938.6 million. All of these issues were outstanding in 2015. In addition to these three conversions of War Loans, the British government had issued 2.5% Annuities on June 13, 1853 in exchange for South Sea Stock, Old South Sea 3% Annuities, New South Sea 3% Annuities, Bank of England 3% Annuities from 1726 and 3% Annuities from 1751. Thus, the direct descendants of the remnants of the South Sea Bubble of 1720 were still around until they were finally redeemed on July 5, 2015. When the British government nationalized the Bank of England in 1946, it issued 3% Treasury Stock in exchange for shares in the Bank of England. There was £54.6 million in these securities outstanding when they were redeemed on May 8, 2015. Two other securities, the 2.75% Annuities, originally issued on October 17, 1884 and the 2.5% Treasury stock issued on October 28, 1946 were also redeemed. No undated gilts were issued by the British government after 1946.The End of Perpetuities
Between February 1, 2015 and July 5, 2015, all eight outstanding undated gilt issues were called in by the British government. Great Britain was the last country to have perpetuities outstanding. Other than Great Britain, all countries had redeemed or their perpetuities by the 1950s, and no country issued any perpetuities after World War II. Some governments, such as France, have issued 50-year bonds, and some companies, such as Disney, have issued 100-year “century” bonds (known as Sleeping Beauties), but no government or corporation has issued undated bonds. The only perpetual financial instruments that still exist are common stock issued by corporations. Common stock has no redemption date and exists as long as the corporation does, but when a corporation is taken over, the common stock ceases to exist. Of the 5000 listed securities traded in the United States, only 13 date from the nineteenth century. The longest dated security is JPMorgan Chase & Co. which started trading as The New York Chemical Manufacturing Co. (later the Chemical Bank) on June 26, 1824.JPMorgan Chase & Co. 1824-2016
The others securities that were originally issued in the 1800s and still exist are the Providence and Worcester Railroad Co. (1853), American Express (1856), ADM Diversified Equity Fund (originally Adams Express) (1866), Consolidated Edison Co. (1885), ExxonMobil (originally Standard Oil) (1886), Texas Pacific Land Trust (1888), Laclede Group Inc. (1889), NL Industries Inc. (originally National Lead) (1891), General Electric Co. (1892), UGI Corp. (originally United Gas Improvement Co.) (1895), Kansas City Southern Industries (1897), and Exelon Corp. (originally the Philadelphia Electric Co. (1899). Three of them, Laclede Group, Inc. NL Industries, Inc. and General Electric Co. were part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896.
The Bank’s charter expired in 1836, but it took 5 years for operations to wind down, as shown in the graph above where the share price plummeted from 119 in 1836 to 15 by 1841.
Exiled from the federal government, Biddle transformed the Second Bank of the United States into the U.S. Bank of Pennsylvania, a state chartered private commercial bank. In his head, he was to recapture his prestige once more. Bankers, by nature, are motivated by profit. Like the risky investments made by Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, and AIG during the 2008 financial crises, Biddle too made excessively aggressive and treacherous ventures, including a convoluted attempt to monopolize the cotton industry. He, and his conspirators, were indicted for fraud and theft and though his lawyers got the charges dismissed (even in 1839 bankers weren’t held liable for their actions!), the US Bank of Pennsylvania closed down in 1843. Nicholas Biddle retreated into solitude, despondent at the loss of his stature and wealth.
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I met Chris while I was a broker. As everyone knows, brokers are salesmen who happen to deal in the stock market. It is better to know nothing about the stock market and be a good salesperson than to have twenty years’ experience in the stock market and have no sales experience.
The first thing the brokerage firm tells you when you are hired is to call up all your friends and get them to invest with you. Once you have gone through your list of friends, then you call your friends’ friends, and then you call the friends of your friends’ friends. When you run out of leads, start cold calling.
Chris was actually the friend of a friend. Chris loved the stock market, followed it every day, and knew the ups and downs of individual stocks—the perfect candidate. My friend arranged for us to get together so we could see if I could interest him in allowing me to manager part of his portfolio.
The meeting was planned at a restaurant in two weeks. Knowing Chris was a mover and a shaker, I decided to suggest some tech stocks to him, something that could move fast, make him some money, and get him to come back for more. This was back in the early 1990s when tech stocks were just beginning to hit their stride before the internet bubble blew apart all concepts of a fair return.
I did my research and found three stocks I thought were going to do well over the next few years: Microsoft, Cisco Systems, and Intel. All were ones with high growth potential and all would do well as the use of personal computers grew.
You never know how a potential client is going to take your recommendations. They might reject a proposal because a stock was too risky, or reject the same stock because it was too safe. I remember I had pitched Cisco to a client, described how it had risen in price for several years, how its earnings were consistently growing, how their product was the backbone of the internet and how the company would grow as the internet expanded. In other words, the stock couldn’t lose, which turned out to be true. The customer was really excited about it and was ready to invest. She asked me how much it was and when I told her it was currently trading at $75, she asked me, “Don’t you have anything cheaper?” I tried to explain to her that the price didn’t matter. It was better to buy 10 shares of a stock that was going up than a 100 shares of a stock that was going down, even if the stock had a higher price, but to no avail.
I had a similar problem with Chris. A couple weeks after meeting him, my friend called me back and let me know that Chris wasn’t interested in investing with me. Were my recommendations too risky? I asked. No, it wasn’t that, he replied. If anything, my recommendations were too conservative. The main issue was that my firm charged commissions that were more than he was willing to pay. I could have suggested the perfect stock to him and because of my commissions, he wouldn’t have invested with me. Now he tells me, I thought.
This was the early 1990s when investing without a broker was just starting to catch on. The stock market hadn’t reached the point where people could trade on line yet; that was still a few years away, but it was close. Even brokers couldn’t trade on line yet. We still had a vacuum tube system in the office. We filled out an order to buy or sell stocks, stuck the order in a cylindrical tube (similar to the ones you put money in at the drive-through at the bank — as if any of you remember that), sent it to the operations manager who would type in the order and send it to New York. We were amazed when we got the response back through the vacuum tube system only a few minutes later.
Not only was there no on-line trading, but CNBC had yet to create a near-monopoly on stock market coverage. There was no CNBC, but there was a local channel in Los Angeles that provided financial news during the morning. The channel paid for itself not only by selling commercial time, but by allowing different stock promoters to have fifteen minute programs on while the market was open and after the market had closed. Since we were in California, the market closed at 1pm, and the hour after the market close was the prime time for stock promoters. It was two hours of pump and dump before the channel turned to Spanish-language programming for the rest of the day.
Most of the programs were 15 minutes long, which was about all the promoters could afford, but the one right after the close, Profits through Penny Stocks, was a 30-minute pump-and-dump show par excellence.
Penny stocks appeal to gamblers, to the people who think they can outwit the market, but inevitably get outwitted themselves. A penny stock is any stock that trades for under one dollar. The stock usually has hundreds of millions of shares outstanding, but the company is worth less than a lemonade stand.
Penny stocks appeal to gamblers for two reasons. First, the stocks are cheap so anyone can afford them. No one is going to ask if you have something cheaper. Since the stocks trade for ten cents or five cents, the buyer reasons, if only the stock goes up five or ten cents, I will double my money.
The punters are willing to believe this because the stock used to be at five cents only a few months before, and now it is at twenty-five cents. Since the stock has already moved up five-fold, there is no reason it couldn’t move up to one dollar, or more. By following the recommendations on TV, the investor could easily make thousands of dollars, but rarely did.
Second, the investor could own a lot of shares. This reinforces the illusion that the investor can make a lot of money. While it takes thousands of dollars to own just one share of Berkshire Hathaway stock, with a penny stock, the investor could buy 100,000 shares of a stock trading at five cents for only $5,000. Never mind that there are probably a hundred million shares outstanding, and the company can always issue more shares, and probably will. The whole process is psychological and has very little to do with reality.
Unfortunately for the investor, the stock rarely goes up in price, it usually goes down as the promoter unloads his shares on the adoring public. When the stock price hits $0.001 or less, the company does a 1000 to one reverse split and 100,000 shares become 100 shares which trade at the price the shares originally sold for the year before. These companies don’t create value, they destroy value.
Another trick of the trade is to issue warrants. A warrant allows you to buy shares at a certain price when the regular stock goes up in price. The advantage is that if the common stock goes up five-fold, the warrants can go up fifty-fold. They rarely do, but it is a good pipe dream.
In 1992, Profits Through Pennies was promoting a stock called Spectrum Information Technologies which was developing a “secret” technology that would allow users to fax wirelessly, rather than being tied down to a phone line.
Chris had no concept of diversification. His idea was, if the stock is going to work, then why not put everything you have into it? Why leave your money in some loser stocks when you can put all your money into one winner? The answer is that the one stock you put your money into is rarely the winner, and you risk losing everything as a result.
This fact of life didn’t discourage Chris, nor did the fact that none of his previous sure things had worked out either. All Chris needed was to hit the jackpot once, and all his problems would be solved, or so he thought.
Spectrum had lain dormant for several months, gradually moving up a little at a time. Chris had put his entire portfolio into Spectrum. He took what was left from his previous investments that had gone awry and put them all into Spectrum. He owned the common stock, he owned both the warrants, he owned the units.
Then, by some miracle, rumors started to spread that the new technology might actually work. The stock started to go up. Chris was actually making a profit. Profits Through Pennies, which was probably more amazed than Chris at the unexpected activity in Spectrum, assured its viewers that this was the big one. Viewers needed to call up their brokerage firm and put even more money into the stock. Because Chris had lost a good portion of his initial investment in several other stocks, he had to raise capital to double up on his profits.
In this, Chris left no stone unturned. He realized he could borrow cash against his credit card, and he did. He realized he could get additional credit cards to borrow against, and he did. He realized he could take out a second mortgage on his house, and he did. He wasn’t able to sell his mother into the white slave trade, but he did borrow money from her. And, of course, he bragged about his profits to his friends and got as many of them as possible to invest with him.
As Spectrum started to rise in price, others began to notice. Not only did the stock start to move up rapidly, but it also fluctuated dramatically. One day it would be up twenty percent, the next day down fifteen percent. It would move up for four days, then fall for three. For the average investor, this is the worst type of stock to be in. You know it is moving on pure speculation. You know it could double or triple in price from here, or today could be the day it starts moving down for good. As a friend of mine put it, “you worry when it goes up and you worry when it goes down.” A stock like this would turn a heavy sleeper into an insomniac.
Then the stock started to go nuts. The stock had been at 25 cents when I first spoke to Chris. Now it was at $1, then it moved up to $2 in one day. The warrants had gone from 5 cents to $1 and were soon in the money. The stock started trading wildly, swinging up and down on a daily basis. Then the most incredible thing happened. In one wild day in which 75 million shares traded, a record on Nasdaq, Spectrum hit $10. My friend was now a millionaire. His investment had paid off.
As luck would have it, the day I spoke to Chris was the day the stock hit its peak. In two days it lost half of its value, and in a week it was back down to $2. In one week, he had made and lost over $1 million. At that point, you know the stock isn’t going to go back to its high, but you know at some point it will get a dead-cat bounce. The problem is everyone else knows this, and everyone is waiting to sell their stock to a sucker who thinks the stock will go higher than they will. The technical term for this is the “greater fool theory.” You may have been a fool to buy the stock at $2, but you hope you can find an even greater fool who will buy the stock at $3. The problem is, sometimes you’re the greater fool.
The other problem with owning a large block of shares is that you have to get rid of them. It may be easy to accumulate hundreds of thousands of shares over time, but selling hundreds of thousands of shares, all at once, will only depress the price.
A few weeks later new rumors started to spread that the ex-CEO of a rival technology firm was going to be hired to bring the technology into fruition. Activity picked up in the stock again, the stock rose in price, and Chris sold into the rally. Despite having lost a million dollars in paper profits, he ended up making $100,000 on his rollercoaster ride.