The United States stock market has broken to new highs in January 2020, continuing a bull market that began in March 2009.  The S&P 500 has risen 382% since March 2009 and is approaching the record bull market of 1974-1987 in which the S&P 500 rose 442%.  This would be only the fourth time that an American bull market rose by more than 400% if this bull market continues. As Figure 1 shows, US stock market Capitalization is close to the same levels as in 1999 when the Internet Bubble burst.  By our estimate, when the S&P 500 hits 3650, the stock market’s capitalization will be twice GDP.

Global Financial Data tracks bull and bear markets in over 100 stock markets.  We have calculated when bull and bear markets have begun and ended throughout the world beginning in 1602. We have over 100 years of data to analyze when bull and bear markets have begun and the number of market tops and bottoms that have occurred each year. GFD defines a bear market as a 20% decline in the primary market index for each country and a bull market as a 50% increase in the primary market index.  A market top occurs when the index declines by 20% or more after a 50% increase, and a market bottom occurs when the market rises by 50% after a 20% decline.