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Bear: 24 and Counting

The U.S. stock market fell into a bear market on March 12, 2020 ending the bull market that began in 2009. The bull market began on March 9, 2009 and peaked on February 19, 2020.  During this raging bull, the S&P 500 rose 400% between 2009 and 2020, the Dow Jones Industrials rose 351% between 2009 and 2020 and the NASDAQ Composite 674%!

 

Figure 1. S&P 500, 2009 to 2020

 

Raging Bull to Roaring Bear

What is interesting about this bear market is how quickly it hit and how sharply markets throughout the world dropped in response to the Coronavirus epidemic. There was no gradual spread of this financial pandemic. It hit all the world’s stock markets severely and simultaneously.

Information of all the bull and bear markets that have affected the American stock market since 1792 and is provided in Table 1. For each market we have provided the date when the bull or bear market hit its top or bottom, the value of the index and the percentage decline in the bear market or percentage rise in the bull market.

 

Bear Stats are In

By our calculation, there have been twenty-four bull and bear markets since 1792 with four occurring in the 1800s, seventeen in the 1900s and three in the 2000s. The worst decline was the 1929-1932 bear market during which the Dow Jones Industrials declined by 89%. The longest bear market lasted from 1792 until 1843. The strongest bull market occurred between 1974 and 1987 when the market rose by 442%. The two previous bear markets in this century both had declines of 50% in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009.

 

DateValueChangeDateValueChangeCause
01/02/17924.516
01/31/18431.497-66.8508/31/18532.58472.61Panic of 1837
10/31/18571.712-33.7507/30/18644.092139.02Panic of 1857
10/31/18732.682-34.4605/31/18815.18993.48End of Civil War, Panic of 1873
01/31/18853.394-34.596/17/19018.53123.88Long Depression
11/9/19035.85-31.4210/9/190610.2374.87Rich Man's Panic
11/15/19076.10-40.3711/19/190910.673.77San Francisco
10/31/19146.63-37.4511/20/191610.5559.13World War I
12/19/19176.00-43.137/16/19199.6460.67Fear of Entering War
8/24/19216.26-35.069/7/192931.86408.95Post-WW I Recession
7/8/19324.41-86.169/7/19329.31111.11Great Depression
2/27/19335.53-40.607/18/193312.2120.61Bank Holidays
3/14/19358.06-33.933/10/193718.68131.76Depression Fears
3/31/19388.5-54.5011/9/193813.7962.24Recession of 1937
4/28/19427.47-45.835/29/194619.25157.70World War II approaches
6/13/194913.55-29.618/2/195649.75267.16Post-WWII Recession
10/22/195738.98-21.6512/12/196172.6486.35Sputnik
6/26/196252.32-27.972/9/196694.0679.78Steel Strike, Kennedy Panic
10/7/196673.2-22.181/5/1973119.8763.76Viet Nam
10/3/197462.28-48.048/25/1987337.89442.53OPEC Embargo
12/4/1987221.24-34.527/16/1990369.7867.141987 Crash
10/17/1990294.51-20.363/24/20001527.46418.64Iraq War
10/9/2002776.77-49.1510/9/20071565.15101.49Internet Bubble, 9/11
3/9/2009676.53-56.782/19/20203386.15400.52Financial Recession
3/12/20202236.70-33.95Coronavirus

Table 1. Bear Markets in the United States, 1792 to 2020

 

The question is, how much more is the stock market likely to fall before we reach a bottom? Will this be a short-lived bear market as occurred in 1987 and 1990 or a more extended bear market as occurred in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009? We certainly hope that the restrictions on travel, reduction in large gatherings, encouragement for social distancing and self-quarantine will be effective in reducing the spread of Covid-19 throughout the United States and the rest of the world so the stock market can regain its losses, build a bottom and begin another bull market. Afterall, who doesn’t love the raging bull?

 

Events in Time Anniversaries: March 2020

Events in Time Anniversaries: March 2020

25 years ago: March 1995

S&P 500: 500.71 (vs. 2746.56 in 03/2020) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 7.20% (vs. 0.56% in 03/2020) Gold: $392.00 (vs. $1676.60 in 03/2020) Oil: $19.175 (vs. $30.59 in 03/2020) GBP/USD: 1.6215 (vs. 1.3047 in 03/2020) US GDP: $7,455 billion (vs. $21,734 billion in 12/2019) US Population: 266 million (vs. 329 million in 2019) 03/01/1995: Yahoo! is incorporated. 03/02/1995: Researchers at Fermilab announce the discovery of the top quark. 03/11/1995: Mines and Energy Minister Ernest Kabushemeye was eaten by cannibals in Bujumbura, Burundi. 03/13/1995: Taliban, tortured and killed Abdul Ali Mazari leader of the Hazara people. The Abacha administration arrested Obasanjo for allegedly supporting a secret coup plot in Nigeria. 03/16/1995: Orange County seeks extensions on the maturities of $1.2 billion in notes, a move that may amount to a default. 03/20/1995: Asarin gas attack on the Tokyo subway kills 13 and wounds 1,300 persons. 03/25/1995: WikiWikiWeb, the world's first wiki, and part of the Portland Pattern Repository, is made public by Ward Cunningham. 03/31/1995: Baseball strike ends after 232 days.  

50 years ago: March 1970

S&P 500: 89.63 (vs. 2746.56 in 03/2020) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 7.08% (vs. 0.56% in 03/2020) Gold: $35.30 (vs. $1676.60 in 03/2020) Oil: $3.21 (vs. $30.59 in 03/2020) GBP/USD: 2.4064 (vs. 1.3047 in 03/2020) US GDP: $1,036 billion (vs. $21,734 billion in 12/2019) US Population: 209 million (vs. 329 million in 2019) 03/02/1970: Rhodesia declares itself a republic, breaking its last links with the British crown. 03/04/1970: French submarine Eurydice explodes underwater, resulting in the loss of the entire 57-man crew. 03/05/1970: The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty goes into effect after ratification by 43 nations. 03/17/1970: My Lai Massacre: The United States Army charges 14 officers with suppressing information related to the incident. 03/18/1970: The U.S. postal strike of 1970 begins, one of the largest wildcat strikes in U.S. history. General Lon Nol overthrew Sihanouk and established a republic. Start of the Cambodian Civil War and the US Cambodian Campaign. 03/21/1970: The first Earth Day proclamation is issued by Mayor of San Francisco Joseph Alioto. 03/23/1970: Nixon called in troops for P.O. strike--first time ever against a civil service. 03/28/1970: Gediz earthquake: A 7.2 magnitude earthquake strikes western Turkey at about 23:05 local time, killed 1,086 and injured 1,260.  

100 years ago: March 1920-+

S&P 500: 8.918 (vs. 2746.56 in 03/2020) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 5.09% (vs. 0.56% in 03/2020) Gold: $20.67 (vs. $1676.60 in 03/2020) Oil: $6.10 (vs. $30.59 in 03/2020) GBP/USD: 3.87 (vs. 1.3047 in 03/2020) US GDP: $84 billion (vs. $21,734 billion in 12/2019) US Population: 106.46 million (vs. 329 million in 2019) 03/01/1920: BestFoods Inc. (formerly Corn Products Refining and CPC International) added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average 03/08/1920: The Arab Kingdom of Syria, the first modern Arab state to come into existence, is established. 03/14/1920: Communists seize demilitarized Ruhr; Dortmund, Remschied, Hagen, Mlheim, Dsseldorf; 300 people killed (mostly policemen). 03/19/1920: The United States Senate rejects the Treaty of Versailles for the second time (the first time was on November 19, 1919). 03/22/1920: Azeri and Turkish army soldiers with participation of Kurdish gangs attacked the Armenian inhabitants of Shushi (Nagorno Karabakh). 03/27/1920: Hermann Muller (Social Democrats) became Chancellor of Germany  

200 years ago: March 1820

S&P 500/GFD US-100: 1.529 (vs. 2746.56 in 03/2020) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 4.478% (vs. 0.56% in 03/2020) Gold: $19.39 (vs. $1676.60 in 03/2020) GBP/USD: 4.44 (vs. 1.3047 in 03/2020) US GDP: $727 million (vs. $21,734 billion in 12/2019) US Population: 9.6 million (vs. 329 million in 2019) 03/06/1820: The Missouri Compromise is signed into law by President James Monroe. The compromise allows Missouri to enter the Union as a slave state, brings Maine into the Union as a free state, and makes the rest of the northern part of the Louisiana Purchase territory slavery-free. 03/08/1820: The king of Spain swears to the constitution; inquisition suppressed. 03/18/1820: Juan Jabat Aztal became Prime Minister of Spain. Evaristo Perez de Castro y Brito became Prime Minister of Spain 03/25/1820: Expulsion of the Jesuits from Russia.   © 2020 Global Financial Data. Please feel free to redistribute this Events-in-Time Chronology and credit Global Financial Data as the source.

Global Financial Pandemic or Another Bear Market?

The U.S. stock market fell into a bear market on March 12, 2020 ending the bull market that began in 2009. The bull market had begun on March 9, 2009 and peaked on February 19, 2020.  The S&P 500 rose 400% between 2009 and 2020, the Dow Jones Industrials rose 351% between 2009 and 2020. The NASDAQ Composite fell into a bear market in 2018 when it declined 23%, bounced back 58% between 2018 and February 19, 2020. The NASDAQ has fallen 26% since then.

Figure 1.  S&P 500, 2009 to 2020

The GFD US-100 Index provides more history than any other stock market index ever developed beginning in the year 1792. By our calculation, there have been twenty-four bull and bear markets since 1792 with four occurring in the 1800s, seventeen in the 1900s and three in the 2000s. The worst bear market was in 1929-1932, led by an 89% decline in the Dow Jones Industrials. The two previous bear markets in this century both had declines of 50% in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009. The 2000 bear market lasted over two years and the 2007 bear market over one year.  By comparison, the 1987 and 1990 bear markets only lasted a few months before the market bounced back. What is interesting about this bear market is how quickly it hit and how sharply markets throughout the world have dropped in tandem in response to the Coronavirus epidemic. There was no gradual spread of this financial pandemic.  It hit all the world’s stock markets simultaneously. In many countries, the 2020 bear market is a continuation of the bear market that began in 2018.

Figure 2.  United States 10-year Bond Yield, 2010 to 2020

The extent of the bear market in 22 countries and for global indices is provided in Table 1. The table shows the date of the market top, the value the index hit on that date, the change from the previous market low, the current value of the market, and how much each market has fallen since the top in 2018 or 2020.  The only major market in the world which has not fallen into a bear market this year is the Chinese market, the country where the coronavirus originated. However, the Chinese market has been in decline since 2015.

Figure 3.  Shanghai Stock Exchange “A” Shares Index, 2010 to 2020

So far, global markets have fallen by around 30-40%.  The question is, how much more are the markets likely to fall?  Will this be a short-lived bear market as occurred in 1987 and 1990 or a more extended bear market as occurred in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009? It should be noted that fixed-income markets have already hit their bottom.  This occurred on March 9 when the 10-year bond yield hit 0.381% and the 30-year bond fell below 1%. Yields have risen since then. Moreover, the Shanghai Index bottomed out on February 3, 2020 when the stock market reopened after the Chinese New Year and has not participated in the worldwide sell off.  Both of these are positive signs that the bear market will not continue for an extended period of time.  We will update Table 1 on a regular basis so our readers can follow the changes that occur in this bear market.  

Country Index Market Top Value Change Market Low Value Change
Asia              
Australia All-Ordinaries 2/20/2020 7255.2 133.16 3/23/2020 4564.10 -37.09
China Shanghai A Shares 6/12/2015 5410.86 165.15 12/27/2018 2600.05 -51.95
Hong Kong Hang Seng 1/26/2018 33154.12 80.98 3/23/2020 21696.13 -32.76
India BSE Sensex 1/14/2020 41952.63 82.79 3/23/2020 25981.24 -38.07
Japan TOPIX 1/23/2018 1911.31 59.77 3/16/2020 1236.34 -35.31
Singapore FTSE ST All-Share 1/24/2018 877.87 40.38 3/23/2020 540.60 -38.42
South Korea Korea SE Price Index 1/29/2018 2598.19 57.21 3/19/2020 1457.64 -43.90
Taiwan Taiwan Weighted 1/14/2020 12179.81 56.41 3/19/2020 8681.34 -28.72
Europe and Africa              
Belgium All-Share 4/13/2015 13859.94 104.31 3/18/2020 7202.21 -48.04
France CAC All-Tradable 2/12/2020 4732.14 56.27 3/18/2020 2888.89 -38.95
Germany CDAX Composite 1/23/2018 625.19 50.07 3/18/2020 363.83 -41.80
Italy FTSE Italia All-Share 2/19/2020 27675.06 39.43 3/12/2020 16286.37 -41.15
Netherlands All-Share Index 2/12/2020 904.31 54.15 3/18/2020 574.88 -36.43
Norway OBX Price 9/25/2018 523.06 70.44 3/16/2020 329.67 -36.92
South Africa FTSE All-Share 1/25/2018 61684.8 246.26 3/19/2020 37963.00 -38.46
Spain Madrid General 4/13/2015 1203.82 99.78 3/16/2020 608.26 -49.47
Sweden OMX All-Share Price 2/19/2020 732.67 68.35 3/23/2020 478.95 -34.63
Switzerland SPI Price Index 2/19/2020 731.04 140.71 3/16/2020 548.52 -24.97
United Kingdom FTSE-100 5/22/2018 7534.4 99.27 3/23/2020 4993.89 -33.72
Americas              
Brazil Bovespa 1/23/2020 119528 217.51 3/23/2020 63451.55 -46.91
Canada TSE-300 2/20/2020 17944.1 51.52 3/23/2020 11228.49 -37.43
Mexico Mexico IPC 7/25/2017 51713.38 206.16 3/23/2020 32936.60 -36.31
United States DJIA 2/12/2020 29551.42 351.37 3/23/2020 18576.04 -37.14
United States S&P 500 2/19/2020 3386.15 400.52 3/23/2020 2236.7 -33.95
United States NASDAQ 2/19/2020 9817.18 58.52 3/23/2020 6860.67 -30.12
Global              
Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Free 1/29/2018 1278.53 85.69 3/23/2020 758.204 -40.70
Europe MSCI Europe 1/25/2018 1926.57 47.52 3/23/2020 1152.698 -40.16
World MSCI World 2/12/2020 2434.95 35.63 3/23/2020 1602.105 -34.20
World MSCI EAFE 1/25/2018 2186.65 46.52 3/23/2020 1354.30 -38.07

Spanish Flu and the Stock Market - How Can We Use the Data Today?

Spanish flu death chart Dr. Bryan Taylor, President and Cheif Economist for Global Financial Data, speaks with KPCW, Mountain Money about the impacts the Spanish Flu had on the stock market in 1918 and how we can look at that data to understand the current market and impacts from COVID-19.
[embed]https://cpa.ds.npr.org/kpcw/audio/2020/03/mm_03162020_dr_bryan_taylor.mp3[/embed] https://www.kpcw.org/post/spanish-flu-and-stock-market-how-can-we-use-data-today#stream/0 Full Article

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Our comprehensive financial databases span global markets offering data never compiled into an electronic format. We create and generate our own proprietary data series while we continue to investigate new sources and extend existing series whenever possible. GFD supports full data transparency to enable our users to verify financial data points, tracing them back to the original source documents. GFD is the original supplier of complete historical data.