Events in Time Anniversaries: March 2020

25 years ago: March 1995

S&P 500: 500.71 (vs. 2746.56 in 03/2020) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 7.20% (vs. 0.56% in 03/2020) Gold: $392.00 (vs. $1676.60 in 03/2020) Oil: $19.175 (vs. $30.59 in 03/2020) GBP/USD: 1.6215 (vs. 1.3047 in 03/2020) US GDP: $7,455 billion (vs. $21,734 billion in 12/2019) US Population: 266 million (vs. 329 million in 2019) 03/01/1995: Yahoo! is incorporated. 03/02/1995: Researchers at Fermilab announce the discovery of the top quark. 03/11/1995: Mines and Energy Minister Ernest Kabushemeye was eaten by cannibals in Bujumbura, Burundi. 03/13/1995: Taliban, tortured and killed Abdul Ali Mazari leader of the Hazara people. The Abacha administration arrested Obasanjo for allegedly supporting a secret coup plot in Nigeria. 03/16/1995: Orange County seeks extensions on the maturities of $1.2 billion in notes, a move that may amount to a default. 03/20/1995: Asarin gas attack on the Tokyo subway kills 13 and wounds 1,300 persons. 03/25/1995: WikiWikiWeb, the world's first wiki, and part of the Portland Pattern Repository, is made public by Ward Cunningham. 03/31/1995: Baseball strike ends after 232 days.  

50 years ago: March 1970

S&P 500: 89.63 (vs. 2746.56 in 03/2020) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 7.08% (vs. 0.56% in 03/2020) Gold: $35.30 (vs. $1676.60 in 03/2020) Oil: $3.21 (vs. $30.59 in 03/2020) GBP/USD: 2.4064 (vs. 1.3047 in 03/2020) US GDP: $1,036 billion (vs. $21,734 billion in 12/2019) US Population: 209 million (vs. 329 million in 2019) 03/02/1970: Rhodesia declares itself a republic, breaking its last links with the British crown. 03/04/1970: French submarine Eurydice explodes underwater, resulting in the loss of the entire 57-man crew. 03/05/1970: The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty goes into effect after ratification by 43 nations. 03/17/1970: My Lai Massacre: The United States Army charges 14 officers with suppressing information related to the incident. 03/18/1970: The U.S. postal strike of 1970 begins, one of the largest wildcat strikes in U.S. history. General Lon Nol overthrew Sihanouk and established a republic. Start of the Cambodian Civil War and the US Cambodian Campaign. 03/21/1970: The first Earth Day proclamation is issued by Mayor of San Francisco Joseph Alioto. 03/23/1970: Nixon called in troops for P.O. strike--first time ever against a civil service. 03/28/1970: Gediz earthquake: A 7.2 magnitude earthquake strikes western Turkey at about 23:05 local time, killed 1,086 and injured 1,260.  

100 years ago: March 1920-+

S&P 500: 8.918 (vs. 2746.56 in 03/2020) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 5.09% (vs. 0.56% in 03/2020) Gold: $20.67 (vs. $1676.60 in 03/2020) Oil: $6.10 (vs. $30.59 in 03/2020) GBP/USD: 3.87 (vs. 1.3047 in 03/2020) US GDP: $84 billion (vs. $21,734 billion in 12/2019) US Population: 106.46 million (vs. 329 million in 2019) 03/01/1920: BestFoods Inc. (formerly Corn Products Refining and CPC International) added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average 03/08/1920: The Arab Kingdom of Syria, the first modern Arab state to come into existence, is established. 03/14/1920: Communists seize demilitarized Ruhr; Dortmund, Remschied, Hagen, Mlheim, Dsseldorf; 300 people killed (mostly policemen). 03/19/1920: The United States Senate rejects the Treaty of Versailles for the second time (the first time was on November 19, 1919). 03/22/1920: Azeri and Turkish army soldiers with participation of Kurdish gangs attacked the Armenian inhabitants of Shushi (Nagorno Karabakh). 03/27/1920: Hermann Muller (Social Democrats) became Chancellor of Germany  

200 years ago: March 1820

S&P 500/GFD US-100: 1.529 (vs. 2746.56 in 03/2020) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 4.478% (vs. 0.56% in 03/2020) Gold: $19.39 (vs. $1676.60 in 03/2020) GBP/USD: 4.44 (vs. 1.3047 in 03/2020) US GDP: $727 million (vs. $21,734 billion in 12/2019) US Population: 9.6 million (vs. 329 million in 2019) 03/06/1820: The Missouri Compromise is signed into law by President James Monroe. The compromise allows Missouri to enter the Union as a slave state, brings Maine into the Union as a free state, and makes the rest of the northern part of the Louisiana Purchase territory slavery-free. 03/08/1820: The king of Spain swears to the constitution; inquisition suppressed. 03/18/1820: Juan Jabat Aztal became Prime Minister of Spain. Evaristo Perez de Castro y Brito became Prime Minister of Spain 03/25/1820: Expulsion of the Jesuits from Russia.   © 2020 Global Financial Data. Please feel free to redistribute this Events-in-Time Chronology and credit Global Financial Data as the source.

The U.S. stock market fell into a bear market on March 12, 2020 ending the bull market that began in 2009. The bull market had begun on March 9, 2009 and peaked on February 19, 2020.  The S&P 500 rose 400% between 2009 and 2020, the Dow Jones Industrials rose 351% between 2009 and 2020. The NASDAQ Composite fell into a bear market in 2018 when it declined 23%, bounced back 58% between 2018 and February 19, 2020. The NASDAQ has fallen 26% since then.

Figure 1.  S&P 500, 2009 to 2020

The GFD US-100 Index provides more history than any other stock market index ever developed beginning in the year 1792. By our calculation, there have been twenty-four bull and bear markets since 1792 with four occurring in the 1800s, seventeen in the 1900s and three in the 2000s. The worst bear market was in 1929-1932, led by an 89% decline in the Dow Jones Industrials. The two previous bear markets in this century both had declines of 50% in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009. The 2000 bear market lasted over two years and the 2007 bear market over one year.  By comparison, the 1987 and 1990 bear markets only lasted a few months before the market bounced back. What is interesting about this bear market is how quickly it hit and how sharply markets throughout the world have dropped in tandem in response to the Coronavirus epidemic. There was no gradual spread of this financial pandemic.  It hit all the world’s stock markets simultaneously. In many countries, the 2020 bear market is a continuation of the bear market that began in 2018.

Figure 2.  United States 10-year Bond Yield, 2010 to 2020

The extent of the bear market in 22 countries and for global indices is provided in Table 1. The table shows the date of the market top, the value the index hit on that date, the change from the previous market low, the current value of the market, and how much each market has fallen since the top in 2018 or 2020.  The only major market in the world which has not fallen into a bear market this year is the Chinese market, the country where the coronavirus originated. However, the Chinese market has been in decline since 2015.

Figure 3.  Shanghai Stock Exchange “A” Shares Index, 2010 to 2020

So far, global markets have fallen by around 30-40%.  The question is, how much more are the markets likely to fall?  Will this be a short-lived bear market as occurred in 1987 and 1990 or a more extended bear market as occurred in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009? It should be noted that fixed-income markets have already hit their bottom.  This occurred on March 9 when the 10-year bond yield hit 0.381% and the 30-year bond fell below 1%. Yields have risen since then. Moreover, the Shanghai Index bottomed out on February 3, 2020 when the stock market reopened after the Chinese New Year and has not participated in the worldwide sell off.  Both of these are positive signs that the bear market will not continue for an extended period of time.  We will update Table 1 on a regular basis so our readers can follow the changes that occur in this bear market.  

Country	Index	Market Top	Value	Change	Market Low	Value	Change
Asia
Australia	All-Ordinaries	2/20/2020	7255.2	133.16	3/23/2020	4564.10	-37.09
China	Shanghai A Shares	6/12/2015	5410.86	165.15	12/27/2018	2600.05	-51.95
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	1/26/2018	33154.12	80.98	3/23/2020	21696.13	-32.76
India	BSE Sensex	1/14/2020	41952.63	82.79	3/23/2020	25981.24	-38.07
Japan	TOPIX	1/23/2018	1911.31	59.77	3/16/2020	1236.34	-35.31
Singapore	FTSE ST All-Share	1/24/2018	877.87	40.38	3/23/2020	540.60	-38.42
South Korea	Korea SE Price Index	1/29/2018	2598.19	57.21	3/19/2020	1457.64	-43.90
Taiwan	Taiwan Weighted	1/14/2020	12179.81	56.41	3/19/2020	8681.34	-28.72
Europe and Africa
Belgium	All-Share	4/13/2015	13859.94	104.31	3/18/2020	7202.21	-48.04
France	CAC All-Tradable	2/12/2020	4732.14	56.27	3/18/2020	2888.89	-38.95
Germany	CDAX Composite	1/23/2018	625.19	50.07	3/18/2020	363.83	-41.80
Italy	FTSE Italia All-Share	2/19/2020	27675.06	39.43	3/12/2020	16286.37	-41.15
Netherlands	All-Share Index	2/12/2020	904.31	54.15	3/18/2020	574.88	-36.43
Norway	OBX Price	9/25/2018	523.06	70.44	3/16/2020	329.67	-36.92
South Africa	FTSE All-Share	1/25/2018	61684.8	246.26	3/19/2020	37963.00	-38.46
Spain	Madrid General	4/13/2015	1203.82	99.78	3/16/2020	608.26	-49.47
Sweden	OMX All-Share Price	2/19/2020	732.67	68.35	3/23/2020	478.95	-34.63
Switzerland	SPI Price Index	2/19/2020	731.04	140.71	3/16/2020	548.52	-24.97
United Kingdom	FTSE-100	5/22/2018	7534.4	99.27	3/23/2020	4993.89	-33.72
Americas
Brazil	Bovespa	1/23/2020	119528	217.51	3/23/2020	63451.55	-46.91
Canada	TSE-300	2/20/2020	17944.1	51.52	3/23/2020	11228.49	-37.43
Mexico	Mexico IPC	7/25/2017	51713.38	206.16	3/23/2020	32936.60	-36.31
United States	DJIA	2/12/2020	29551.42	351.37	3/23/2020	18576.04	-37.14
United States	S&P 500	2/19/2020	3386.15	400.52	3/23/2020	2236.7	-33.95
United States	NASDAQ	2/19/2020	9817.18	58.52	3/23/2020	6860.67	-30.12
Global
Emerging Markets	MSCI Emerging Free	1/29/2018	1278.53	85.69	3/23/2020	758.204	-40.70
Europe	MSCI Europe	1/25/2018	1926.57	47.52	3/23/2020	1152.698	-40.16
World	MSCI World	2/12/2020	2434.95	35.63	3/23/2020	1602.105	-34.20
World	MSCI EAFE	1/25/2018	2186.65	46.52	3/23/2020	1354.30	-38.07

Dr. Bryan Taylor, President and Cheif Economist for Global Financial Data, speaks with KPCW, Mountain Money about the impacts the Spanish Flu had on the stock market in 1918 and how we can look at that data to understand the current market and impacts from COVID-19.