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Perspectives on Economics and finances with GFD

Another Sign of an Overvalued Market?

Another Sign of an Overvalued Market?

  The United States stock market has broken to new highs in January 2020, continuing a bull market that began in March 2009.  The S&P 500 has risen 382% since March 2009 and is approaching the record bull market of 1974-1987 in which the S&P 500 rose...

Events in Time Anniversaries: January 2020

Events in Time Anniversaries: January 2020

  25 years ago: January 1995 S&P 500: 470.42 (vs. 3253.05 in 01/2020) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 7.60% (vs. 1.85% in 01/2020) Gold: $374.90 (vs. $1571.95 in 01/2020) Oil: $18.405 (vs. $59.65 in 01/2020) GBP/USD: 1.5785 (vs. 1.3077 in 01/2020) US GDP:...

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GFD Insights

The Spanish Flu and the Stock Market: The Pandemic of 1919

The Spanish Flu and the Stock Market: The Pandemic of 1919

  Everyone is concerned about the coronavirus and how it is impacting the global economy.  Parts of China have been quarantined to prevent the spread of the virus and the world is wondering how the virus will disrupt supply chains between China and the rest of...

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The Superbowl Market Continues!

The Superbowl Market Continues!

  We can call the current bull market, as seen in figure 1. the Superbowl market since it has now increased by more than 400%.  On February 19, 2020 the S&P 500 closed at 3386.15 meaning that the current bull market has increased by over 400% from its closing...

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The Market’s Thirty-Year Cycle Continues

The Market’s Thirty-Year Cycle Continues

  The United States stock market has been moving in 30-year Cycles since the 1890s.  Now that the 2010s have finished, we can examine the data to see if this pattern continued during the previous decade.  The short answer is, it did! Table 1 provides the real...

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