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GFD Insights

The Market’s Thirty-Year Cycle Continues

The Market’s Thirty-Year Cycle Continues

  The United States stock market has been moving in 30-year Cycles since the 1890s.  Now that the 2010s have finished, we can examine the data to see if this pattern continued during the previous decade.  The short answer is, it did! Table 1 provides the real...

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300 years of the Equity-Risk Premium

  The equity-risk premium (ERP) is one of the most important variables in finance. It tells investors how much a risky investment such as stocks returns relative to a risk-free investment such as government bonds.  Any history of the equity premium shows that its...

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Another Sign of an Overvalued Market?

Another Sign of an Overvalued Market?

  The United States stock market has broken to new highs in January 2020, continuing a bull market that began in March 2009.  The S&P 500 has risen 382% since March 2009 and is approaching the record bull market of 1974-1987 in which the S&P 500 rose...

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