The Superbowl Market Continues!

The Superbowl Market Continues!

  We can call the current bull market, as seen in figure 1. the Superbowl market since it has now increased by more than 400%.  On February 19, 2020 the S&P 500 closed at 3386.15 meaning that the current bull market has increased by over 400% from its closing...
The Market’s Thirty-Year Cycle Continues

The Market’s Thirty-Year Cycle Continues

  The United States stock market has been moving in 30-year Cycles since the 1890s.  Now that the 2010s have finished, we can examine the data to see if this pattern continued during the previous decade.  The short answer is, it did! Table 1 provides the real...
Events in Time Anniversaries: February 2020

Events in Time Anniversaries: February 2020

    25 years ago: February 1995 S&P 500: 487.39 (vs. 3380.16 in 02/2020) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 7.22% (vs. 1.59% in 02/2020) Gold: $376.40 (vs. $1581.40 in 02/2020) Oil: $18.515 (vs. $52.03 in 02/2020) GBP/USD: 1.5825 (vs. 1.3046 in 02/2020)...

300 years of the Equity-Risk Premium

  The equity-risk premium (ERP) is one of the most important variables in finance. It tells investors how much a risky investment such as stocks returns relative to a risk-free investment such as government bonds.  Any history of the equity premium shows that its...